I’m not a prophet, nor a sage with any real wisdom. But I’d like to take this opportunity to take a stab at predicting a few current event outcomes currently hanging in the balance. Of course, like any good American I should get paid for this work, no matter how invaluable it may seem at the time. So to determine how much money I should get paid for being right I’m going to use a website called InTrade. This site functions like a stock market, where you buy $10 futures at discounted prices. (For example right now I can buy a $10 future that Barack Obama will be the next President for $5.84. In the event that Obama wins, I get $10 making a net profit of $4.16 on each future I buy).
A couple of interesting questions hanging in the balance:
Will the US and/or Israel Bomb Iran before December 31, 2008?
– I’ll buy 100 futures at $1.84. More than anything else I believe in irony. I believe Israel was created to prevent a 2nd holocaust, and I pray that I am wrong when I say that it’s creation/existence may be the cause of one in the future. (sidenote… yes that seems anti-semetic, but if you read this blog you should know that in addition to being anti-semetic I am also anti-christian, anti-muslim and anti-wiccan. I also believe governments make bad decisions and that includes the Israeli government)
Will Osama Bin Ladin be neutralized by December 31, 2008?
-Absolutely… I’ve been saying this for years. We’ve been keeping him locked up in a dark room some where for many years to be announced as a trophey at the end of Premier Bush’s reign, but there’s a problem. We can’t say that we’ve captured him because then we’d have to kill him or be politically unpopular in sparing his life. If we kill him he becomes a martyr and we’ve given radical Islamists a shot of adrenaline (we’d be giving radical Christians the same shot of adrenaline, but they’re pretty docile folk). No, he’ll be neutralized which means he’ll be found dead, presumably in a cave, with some embarrassing disease like syphilis or genital warts.
100 contracts @ $0.87 is a steal considering we’ve already captured him. Now Bush just needs to take credit before the end of the year.
Will Dr. Arata’s Cold Fusion experiment be replicated in a peer-reviewed scientific journal before Dec 31st 2008?!
-I’m surprised how many people in the Western World do not know about this experiment. Basically, on May 22nd Dr. Yoshiaki Arata, one of Japan’s most respect physicists, conducted an experiment that he called “solid nuclear fusion.” His experiment yielded high levels of excess heat from ZrO2-nano-Pd sample powders under D2 gas, charging and generating continuous energy and helium-4 as byproducts. The initial reaction of knowledgeable physics contemporaries at the experiment was that this was easily replicable.
100 contracts at $2.00
The ELECTORAL COLLEGE TIE!!!
– 100 contracts at $0.45 *Sidenote. Obama wins popular vote by 2 million and change. House elections Obama as President, Senate splits 50-50 because Lieberman is a tool and Dick Cheney gets the tiebreaker… Obama/Palin White House. Does this get anymore exciting!?!?
OJ Simpson to be guilty of at least 1 Las Vegas robbery charge
– Nobody gets that lucky twice… 100 contracts at $8.00
Congress to approve a bailout of banks by September 30,2008
-100 contracts @ $2.99. It’s pretty much a given or we’re talking bread lines, soup kitchens and Bushvilles… which won’t be as much fun as we once imagined. (See Willie Nelson tattoo)
Price of Gold to be greater than $1000 by Dec 31, 2008
-People talk about the commodity bubble like it’s down for the count, but we love a comeback… and in seriously volatile times gold seems like a safe bet… just bite it first to make sure it’s real.
100 contracts @ $6.00
State of Ohio… will go Republican in 2008 for Pres. Election
-The market doesn’t favor this bet, it’s priced at 52-48 in favor of the dems, but that just means it’s a good deal for the faithful. 100 contracts@ $4.80 because nobody suppresses the black vote better than Ohio… except maybe Florida.
Where or where will the Dow Jones close??
-The smart money is that it closes above 10,000… that contract is going for $9.00 Since I’m certain the bailout will pass I think it’s safer to exercise a little more optimism and say it will close above 11,250. The contract there is at $4.80 vs. $6.20 for it closing above 11,000… an extra $1.40 for 250 points… seems like a deal.
100 contracts @ $4.80
Last named storm of 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season…
-That’s right folks they name these babies in advance. It’s a pretty even spread between Nana and Teddy, ranging from $1.12 for Nana to $1.09 for Teddy. Rene seems to be popular with the unusually high price of $1.42 which leads me to believe somebody’s getting some insider information from the National Weather Service. But since Weatherman are about as accurate as my dog I’m going to with Marco. 100 contracts @ $1.97
And now for some math…
197+480+480+600+299+800+45+200+87+184 = $3372 – Amount I need to purchase futures
If I go 10/10 on these predictions my return will be 66% (assuming I have the money to invest because I, like every good and patriotic american, was raped by the market this year… repeatedly) If you want to gamble with me please respect the finders’ fee and donate 10% to my righteous, but undetermined cause.