Betting on the “future” or the easiest 10k I’ll ever make

September 28, 2008

I’m not a prophet, nor a sage with any real wisdom. But I’d like to take this opportunity to take a stab at predicting a few current event outcomes currently hanging in the balance. Of course, like any good American I should get paid for this work, no matter how invaluable it may seem at the time. So to determine how much money I should get paid for being right I’m going to use a website called InTrade. This site functions like a stock market, where you buy $10 futures at discounted prices. (For example right now I can buy a $10 future that Barack Obama will be the next President for $5.84. In the event that Obama wins, I get $10 making a net profit of $4.16 on each future I buy).

A couple of interesting questions hanging in the balance:

Will the US and/or Israel Bomb Iran before December 31, 2008?
– I’ll buy 100 futures at $1.84. More than anything else I believe in irony. I believe Israel was created to prevent a 2nd holocaust, and I pray that I am wrong when I say that it’s creation/existence may be the cause of one in the future. (sidenote… yes that seems anti-semetic, but if you read this blog you should know that in addition to being anti-semetic I am also anti-christian, anti-muslim and anti-wiccan. I also believe governments make bad decisions and that includes the Israeli government)

Will Osama Bin Ladin be neutralized by December 31, 2008?
-Absolutely… I’ve been saying this for years. We’ve been keeping him locked up in a dark room some where for many years to be announced as a trophey at the end of Premier Bush’s reign, but there’s a problem. We can’t say that we’ve captured him because then we’d have to kill him or be politically unpopular in sparing his life. If we kill him he becomes a martyr and we’ve given radical Islamists a shot of adrenaline (we’d be giving radical Christians the same shot of adrenaline, but they’re pretty docile folk). No, he’ll be neutralized which means he’ll be found dead, presumably in a cave, with some embarrassing disease like syphilis or genital warts.

100 contracts @ $0.87 is a steal considering we’ve already captured him. Now Bush just needs to take credit before the end of the year.

Will Dr. Arata’s Cold Fusion experiment be replicated in a peer-reviewed scientific journal before Dec 31st 2008?!
-I’m surprised how many people in the Western World do not know about this experiment. Basically, on May 22nd Dr. Yoshiaki Arata, one of Japan’s most respect physicists, conducted an experiment that he called “solid nuclear fusion.” His experiment yielded high levels of excess heat from ZrO2-nano-Pd sample powders under D2 gas, charging and generating continuous energy and helium-4 as byproducts. The initial reaction of knowledgeable physics contemporaries at the experiment was that this was easily replicable.

100 contracts at $2.00

The ELECTORAL COLLEGE TIE!!!
– 100 contracts at $0.45 *Sidenote. Obama wins popular vote by 2 million and change. House elections Obama as President, Senate splits 50-50 because Lieberman is a tool and Dick Cheney gets the tiebreaker… Obama/Palin White House. Does this get anymore exciting!?!?

OJ Simpson to be guilty of at least 1 Las Vegas robbery charge
– Nobody gets that lucky twice… 100 contracts at $8.00

Congress to approve a bailout of banks by September 30,2008
-100 contracts @ $2.99. It’s pretty much a given or we’re talking bread lines, soup kitchens and Bushvilles… which won’t be as much fun as we once imagined. (See Willie Nelson tattoo)

Price of Gold to be greater than $1000 by Dec 31, 2008
-People talk about the commodity bubble like it’s down for the count, but we love a comeback… and in seriously volatile times gold seems like a safe bet… just bite it first to make sure it’s real.

100 contracts @ $6.00

State of Ohio… will go Republican in 2008 for Pres. Election
-The market doesn’t favor this bet, it’s priced at 52-48 in favor of the dems, but that just means it’s a good deal for the faithful. 100 contracts@ $4.80 because nobody suppresses the black vote better than Ohio… except maybe Florida.

Where or where will the Dow Jones close??
-The smart money is that it closes above 10,000… that contract is going for $9.00 Since I’m certain the bailout will pass I think it’s safer to exercise a little more optimism and say it will close above 11,250. The contract there is at $4.80 vs. $6.20 for it closing above 11,000… an extra $1.40 for 250 points… seems like a deal.

100 contracts @ $4.80

Last named storm of 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season…

-That’s right folks they name these babies in advance. It’s a pretty even spread between Nana and Teddy, ranging from $1.12 for Nana to $1.09 for Teddy. Rene seems to be popular with the unusually high price of $1.42 which leads me to believe somebody’s getting some insider information from the National Weather Service. But since Weatherman are about as accurate as my dog I’m going to with Marco. 100 contracts @ $1.97

And now for some math…

197+480+480+600+299+800+45+200+87+184 = $3372 – Amount I need to purchase futures

If I go 10/10 on these predictions my return will be 66% (assuming I have the money to invest because I, like every good and patriotic american, was raped by the market this year… repeatedly)  If you want to gamble with me please respect the finders’ fee and donate 10% to my righteous, but undetermined cause.

Advertisements

A brief quiz on your intelligence

March 1, 2008

Is your quality of life going to improve because abortion or gay marriage are outlawed?

Do you really care if the government is listening to you tell your sister that your dog peed on your bed again?

Do you personally feel threatened by Al Qaeda?

Do you think it’s the government’s fault you lost your no skills required, minimum wage job because of illegal immigration?

Do you really need to complain about your health plan that won’t let you see that specialist in Chicago who will, in all likelihood, tell you the exact same thing the 3 specialists in your area have already told you?

Is this negative economy really the governments fault?

Do you think the federal government should tell each state how it is… especially when it comes to immigration, abortion, and gay marriage?  (If you answered yes and call yourself a “conservative” please remove your uneducated ass from the gene pool before finishing this article)

Did you expect Congress to do anything?  Anything at all?

Do you vote for that guy, whose name you recognize, because that’s just who you’ve always voted for?  Do you struggle to identify anything they’ve done since they’ve been elected?

Do you think you’re blameless for your current economic situation because you failed to read your mortgage contract or racked up $10k in credit card debt, because hey… banks and credit card companies are good people… they aren’t trying to squeeze you for every penny… it’s the government’s fault for not regulating them and informing you of the obvious, right?

Is somebody constantly out to get you or intentionally trying to make your life worse?  A Democrat, Republican or Ralph Nader?

If you answered yes to any of these questions… please do us all a favor and _______
***For those smart enough to pick up on my smarmy quips… please fill in the blank with your own suggestion in the “comments” section below.


A Prophecy

February 26, 2008

I stood on a balcony overlooking the city of San Francisco. I felt a wave of energy emanating that I thought was lost in time. Shenanigans will befall, and there will be scandal. An election, not stolen, but utterly incompetent will be a strong impetus, but the momentum has been growing for some time. The populace can only take so much abuse of policy, there needs to be a stool pigeon. The unjust war is a start, but it needs to be something more social. Energy, or immigration… something to coral a too comfortable populace into action.

When the time comes there will be great suffering, not on the level of past plagues, epidemics, and disasters, but financial and mental suffering. A suffering at the hands of a system we have for too long be complicit within.

A great leader will emerge to unite, but in doing so will divide. A second great leader will come on par with the first, representing the division of thought. Progress will win, but only after the emergence of a 3rd. One of great foresight who will purge the corruption and sacrifice themselves for the perseverance of the corrupt and flawed system that began the vicious cycle.

“If we dig precious things from the land, we will invite disaster.
Near the day of Purification, there will be cobwebs spun back and forth in the sky.
A container of ashes might one day be thrown from the sky, which could burn the land and boil the oceans.” – Hopi Indian Prophecy from Koyannisquatsi.


The Price of Gold – on the precipice of an economic empire

January 31, 2008

The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee or GATA is shelling out $264,000 for a full page ad in the Wall St. Journal to call attention to the fact that our gold reserves haven’t been audited for more than a half a century. The announcement of the ad-buy elicited a sharp response from the Treasury Department’s general counsel.

“While the entire gold stock is not physically re-counted in any one year, over a period of years, by our continuous sampling process, the entire stock has been counted, and is effectively re-inventoried,” explains Rich Delmar, counsel to the inspector general of the Treasury Department.

KPMG was the independent auditor to the Treasury Department’s 2006 Annual Report, though it’s role was to inspect the balance sheets and custodial gold policy, not an inspection of actual physical inventory. Custodial gold is reserves being held for other countries in one of our mints and accounts for approximately 90% of a mint’s balance sheet.

According to GATA, the current price of gold can plausibly be a result of systemic manipulation. GATA alleges US gold reserves are being shipped overseas to settle complex transactions performed by the Federal Reserve and US Treasury to suppress the price of gold. They cite as evidence multiple Federal Reserve meeting notes as far back as 1995 indicating that the Treasury Department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund had undertaken gold swaps. “The objective of this manipulation is to conceal the mismanagement of the U.S. dollar so that it might retain its function as the world’s reserve currency,” reads the ad-copy.

GATA has filed a request through the freedom of information act for the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve to disclose details on any gold swapping or leasing activities. The concern is that our gold reserves at Fort Knox and West Point may be seriously depleted. Craig Smith, the founder of Swiss America Trading Corp, alleges this corruption exists on an even wider time-frame. Smith noted any number of financial crises since the late 1980s that “should have propelled gold way beyond the 1980 high of $850,” including the savings and loan debacle and the birth of the Resolution Trust Corporation, the sub-prime security crisis, as well as the on-going devaluation and de-pegging of the US dollar.

Of course Smith’s company would benefit greatly from a gold crisis.  Swiss America hawks gold coins to unsuspecting consumers at the same price as gold bullion, despite the coins having less value than the bullion.

In the information age of unlimited information the lack of transparency into Treasury Department policy is disconcerting. Even more troublesome is the large amounts of money people are willing to spend to call attention to the lack of transparency, and the frightening implications if they are right. America’s empire is not like the empires of the past, based on sheer size of landmass and army, but rather is an economic empire, propped up by the fact that the almighty dollar is a more stable reserve than gold.  If this illusion dies, so does the empire.

GATA Wall St. Journal Ad

*Editor’s note: Unlike many propagators of conspiracy theories, GATA is a pretty legitimate organization. Check out their website, which has a pretty nice collection of essays and research into the empirical evidence of collusion in financial markets.  They also have an email list and take online donations for those who want to explore the cause.

For those concerned about the potential economic impact from a scandal involving our gold reserves, you can play it safe with little adjustment to your portfolio.  Most investors recommend a portfolio of at least 10% gold (or mix of gold, precious metals and other commodities).  I’d recommend expanding this percentage of your portfolio to 20% – buying strongly in gold, managed timber.  Corn, soybeans and sugar cane are also good recession-resistant positions.  Be sure to remember that there is always someone making money when many people are losing money; make sure that you have enough liquidity in your portfolio to take advantage of future uncertainty.


Piranha’s feeding on a mouse – warning – very graphic!

January 15, 2008

About a year ago I purchased 13 baby piranhas (you’d be amazed what you can buy online). Now they’re all grown up. Who needs the nature channel when you have this!?!

A quick background on piranha’s for the layman:

They are extremely skittish fish. They use schooling or shoaling as a means of protection against predators. Just walking by the tank is enough to startle them. Usually when the mouse is first added to the tank they are initially frightened. A sentry is sent out of the school to scope out the scene and confirm the absence of predators. Once the piranha attack, it’s a battle royale for a prize of fresh meat.


A prelude of things to come – the illusion of choice

January 14, 2008

If the trend of increasing influence on elections from the blog community is to continue, and all signs point that they will continue to exert pressure on the mainstream media to cover abuses of our electoral system. Voter turnout is up, an optimistic sign, but voting now seems like the illusion of choice. It is becoming clear the course of politics is increasingly more clever machinations, with both parties guilty of deceit, failed promises, and negligence.

I strongly encourage you all to read the reporting of Brad Friedman:

“Election Officials Confirm that Employees from LHS Associates, Diebold’s Sole Programmer, Vendor, and Service Provider in NH, Were Allowed to Access Vulnerable Optical-Scan Systems Throughout Election Day”

Friedman spoke with five towns, with election officials from four towns confirming issues with the electronic voting machines.

“… LHS employees may have had regular access to memory cards and voting machines, and even replaced them during the course of the day as failures occurred. Officials I spoke with in New Hampshire were unclear whether LHS was working under any strict written security protocols other than those procedures that clerks and other officials are told to follow concerning set-up and use of the machines on Election Day. ”

More troubling than the potential for abuse is the lack of major network news coverage. It is frightening to think of what a blogger could uncover in a few hours of phone calls and meetings that network and newspaper journalists haven’t picked up. Why is there no outrage that voting patterns on the electronic machines seem erratic when compared to hand counted ballots?

Turnout is up, and considering the inevitable disenfranchisement, maybe more people will care enough to force our legislators to act and fix an obviously flawed system. Let’s hope.

Reason #34635 to vote for Ron Paul.


Water Fluoridation – or why we can’t let the communists sap and impurify our precious bodily fluids

January 11, 2008

From Stanley Kubrick’s 1964 classic, “Dr. Strangelove, or how I learned to stop worrying and love the bomb.”

Ripper: Mandrake?
Mandrake: Yes, Jack?
Ripper: Have you ever seen a Commie drink a glass of water?
Mandrake: Well, I can’t say I have.
Ripper: Vodka, that’s what they drink, isn’t it? Never water?
Mandrake: Well, I-I believe that’s what they drink, Jack, yes.
Ripper: On no account will a Commie ever drink water, and not without good reason.
Mandrake: Oh, eh, yes. I, uhm, can’t quite see what you’re getting at, Jack.
Ripper: Water, that’s what I’m getting at, water. Mandrake, water is the source of all life. Seven-tenths of this earth’s surface is water. Why, do you realize that seventy percent of you is water?
Mandrake: Uh, uh, Good Lord!
Ripper: And as human beings, you and I need fresh, pure water to replenish our precious bodily fluids.
Mandrake: Yes. (he begins to chuckle nervously)
Ripper: Are you beginning to understand?
Mandrake: Yes. (more laughter)
Ripper: Mandrake. Mandrake, have you never wondered why I drink only distilled water, or rain water, and only pure-grain alcohol?
Mandrake: Well, it did occur to me, Jack, yes.
Ripper: Have you ever heard of a thing called fluoridation. Fluoridation of water?
Mandrake: Uh? Yes, I-I have heard of that, Jack, yes. Yes.
Ripper: Well, do you know what it is?
Mandrake: No, no I don’t know what it is, no.
Ripper: Do you realize that fluoridation is the most monstrously conceived and dangerous Communist plot we have ever had to face?

It’s hard to imagine fluoride as a communist plot, but rather curious that most western European countries have abandoned the practice. Ask any American which option they would choose, fluoridated vs. non-fluoridated water – the vast majority will choose fluoridated water, why? The only answer is that because fluoride is good for your teeth.

Most Americans remain unexposed to recent studies disproving the effectiveness of fluoridation as a preventive measure against tooth decay. Fluoridation is not necessary.

From Paul Connett, PhD
Professor of Chemistry
St. Lawrence University:

“Most Western European countries are not fluoridated and have experienced the same decline in dental decay as the US (See data from World Health Organization in Appendix 1, and the time trends presented graphically at http://www.fluoridealert.org/who-dmft.htm ). ”

From Ted H Spence, DDS, ND, PhD/DSc,MH:

“Some 61,000 cancer deaths in the US result from fluoridation each year. I repeat 61,000. (Burk and Yiamouyiannis) One study found that fluoride elevates cancer mortality 17% in 16 years in large cities. (from Gerald Judd, PhD) “You have been led to believe the fluorine makes teeth harder. The fact is, it actually makes teeth softer.” (George Meinig, a founder of the American Academy of Endodontics)”

“Fluoride [a toxic] does not stop rampant tooth decay. [Fluoride only hardens to outer surface of the enamel and may prevent calcium from being deposited when a tooth is re-mineralized.] Nutrition stops tooth decay. I have developed a nutritional supportive program which will totally stop tooth decay in less than two weeks… I have watched many children go from all 20 carious deciduous teeth, to 20 ebernated [hardened] teeth, which are non-painful and hard as rock. I have never seen fluoride do this [after 21 years of dentistry] and fluoride is not even a part of my caries prevention program.”

The main issue with fluoridation is that if there is no national health benefit from fluoridation, then it is tantamount to force-feeding. Why are citizens forced to consume something that is potentially hazardous to their health, and where the benefit is non-existent?

To be a valid conspiracy there must exist a group of people with a motive and the results derived from this policy must benefit that group. There is no clear consistency to attribute the policy to a cohesive conspiracy – click to see state by state statistics on the percentage of public water that is fluoridated.

It makes more sense to attribute the policy to bad science, and the slow reversal of the policy to indicate not only poor scientific judgment, but the attempt to correct the policy without acknowledging its failures and indemnify the ADA, AMA, and WHO.

From Ted H Spence, DDS, ND, PhD/DSc,MH:

“According to Websters Dictionary, water fluoridation means “the addition of a fluoride to the water supply (to prevent dental decay).” But, the ADA is now telling us that a country doesn’t have to actually add fluoride to its water to be listed as ‘practicing water fluoridation.’ Instead, it simply has to have some area of its nation-state with elevated levels of naturally occurring fluoride in the water. It also puts a very peculiar connotation on the word “practice”. ”

Bad science, not conspiracy.